Gates, Fences and Exits

"In a world without fences, who needs Gates?" - ran a TShirt slogan in one of the earlier days Linux Developer Meets. Linux was not so popular that time, but it was seen by fans as very promising. To take over the world dominated by MS in actions, thoughts and dreams.

Not to debate on where does Linux stand now, MS has announced last Thursday that very soon its going to be a world of no Gates. After buidling a strong fenced domain where his brain child grew up without bothering much about competition, Gates is now on the exit path.

Gates, no doubt has been a huge force in the technology market. Agree or not, he released the concept of Personal Computer from the purest imaginations of Steve Jobs to the real avenues of various jobs and even jobless. In 30 years he changed the perception of innovation - by researching needs and not just researching solutions. Microsoft, Windows and Gates became household names. Some modelled Gates as the career goal-model. Gates became the second word for IT. He used to define what next in IT - before the real convergence took place. Remember the earlier microsoft tagline - Where do you want to go today?

Interesting story is Microsoft could never create a fan-base. Neither did Gates. The more popular Windows became, equally hated it became. Jokes flew about Microsoft standards and Microsoft support standards. Japan called it Makkurosoft, while accepting PCs in their Mac-fame homes. Companies rallied against using anti-trust and monopoly charges. Europe made laws to strip WindowsXP off its music players. And someone in Europe physically threw apple pie on Gates face. May be it was another Gates theory in business. You do not need to be liked by people, for being used by the same people. But how long? Time will say.

I remember in 90s when the converegence was yet to start off - Gates was on time with Windows CE plans and the PC centric home ideas. When Tamura san used to object the idea of PC as the entertainment center, I did not fully understand. I really thought world would move the Microsoft way. PC is the phone, it is is TV, it is the music system - its everything. But ended up so only in the labs. In real world, consumer electronics makers had real strength which probably was not the NYSE or NASDAQ stock prices. Microsoft concept of HomePC or PCHome never happened.

On the OS front Microsoft remains the leader. Mac as a home OS and Linux as server OS probably might make it in future. Especially with Steve Jobs back in affairs in Mac and with Google et al backing Linux server farm projects. Still no competition in the "productivity" or business PC domain. No big changes expected very soon in the OS world by MS too. Vista had some stunning concepts, which would no longer be stunning when it comes out after huge delays. Its partner Intel has now stepped into Mac world also.. will it be Mactel vs Wintel?? Or will Windows go the ARM way and create custom use PCs instead of a one for all? It is WARM already in WindowsCE domain.

WindowsCE took ages to come to a product level. All the RTOS were there to get it a tough entrance. Promise was that WInCE will be everywhere. I remember Jayan talking a lot of that - phone, washing machine, cooking range everything will be WindowsCE.. . Concept was right. But the huge inertia MS built into the WIndows code in years did not allow to move so quickly and smartly. When I see the market that I work on, WinCE version of SmartPhone and PocketPC are probably picking up slowly. Thanks to the award winning MS Office, the "productivity suite" which made Windows popular in office, is helping leverage the business phone market. The file formats doc, xls, ppt were the real fences that protected the growth.

Here again, new theats are coming up. People are now working to get Office doc formats out of MS proprietary world and hook them on to standards. xml looks like the new buzz here. MS might have the best editing tools, but might not be the only ones. Like the OpenOffice, which I use at home. Good enough. Now Google is on the move. After beating MS and Yahoo on the search front, Google is now trying to spread everywhere. But they keep one theme - no fences. They keep things open. Their venture into portal is really huge than expected. Google account is getting richer in services and contents. The old services such as mails, chats and groups apart, they are into the new age ones such as custom news, custom search, blogs, photos (picasaweb), networking (orkut), maps (earth and maps) and the futuristic like the newest office tools (online spreadsheets). Perhaps Google is the biggest competition that give MS sleepless nights now? And with Gates not there, Google will be eyeing to cross over the fences he has built in the last 30 years.

All eyes on Steve Balmer - will he opt to guard the fences as Gates leaves? Or will be tear down the fences and guide MS grow in new land?

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